I like to trade stocks that are relative leaders and belong to industry groups that are leaders as well. For the past 2-3 months, much has been written about and discussed with respect to semiconductors ($DJUSSC), software ($DJUSSW), electrical components & equipment ($DJUSEC), electronic equipment ($DJUSAI), recreational services ($DJUSRQ), travel & tourism ($DJUSTT), etc. These groups were laggards prior to showing absolute and relative strength and, many times, it’s the absolute strength (think breakout) that triggers money flows into that particular area of the market.
With that in mind, where’s one area that we could see upcoming strength during the summer months?
Computer Hardware
I know this group has been out of favor, but that seemed to change last week:
Its absolute downtrend seems to have been broken and we saw a glimpse of solid relative strength. Seasonality also leads me to believe that this run could very well just be getting started. Check this out:
Over the past 20 years, the DJUSCR has crushed the S&P 500 during the months of July and August. It’s easily been the group’s best two calendar months historically. These two months have consistently been great months for computer hardware stocks as they’ve each gained ground in roughly 3 out of every 4 years. Apple, Inc. (AAPL), the leading computer hardware stock, absolutely loves the months of July and August.
I expect last week’s rally to continue right up to AAPL’s earnings report on July 31st, and possibly beyond.
I’ll be featuring one other computer hardware stock in our FREE EB Digest newsletter on Monday morning that has CRUSHED the S&P 500 during July and August historically and it boasts one of the strongest charts in technology since the April low. If you’re not already an EB Digest subscriber, simply CLICK HERE to provide your name and email address. I’ll get that chart out to you first thing tomorrow morning!
Happy trading!
Tom
